Dr Abdulhadi Al ajmi
Lately, during the Society for History and Heritage Conference, researcher Dr Sultan Al Asqa spoke about the long-lasting conflict in the Gulf over the centuries by some of the competing powers. At the time, these were led by the British, French, Ottomans, and Germans.
After Napoleon occupied Egypt in 1798 and threatened the Levant, the British regarded the Gulf as a first line of defence to protect their trade interests and influence in India, the jewel of the British Crown as they called it, to later turn the Gulf during this colonial conflict into a closed lake for Britain.
After World Wars I and II and the emergence of other major powers led by the United States, the Gulf began to take a different political form and character, especially after the discovery of oil, where US politicians considered the Gulf as their strongest influence procession to show and impose their power, especially after the loss of the Gulf’s eastern coast following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, and the intensification of the cold war between them and the Russians.
With the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war, which was followed by the liberation of Kuwait, the overthrowing of Saddam Hussein’s regime, and the escalation of tensions in the region, the Americans’ continuing decline in their ability to maintain their influence in the Gulf region was clear, where they opened the way for the Iranians to impose their policy and exercise the role of a regional policeman if later deemed necessary.
This will more or less serve the Americans’ undeclared goals in the Gulf. Indeed, this well-planned role seems to be normally and quietly heading toward the Americans’ handing over the Gulf cop uniform to Iran.
However, when the strong winds of the Decisive Storm blew hard, the American plans across several decades have collapsed. We can say that the Gulf policeman’s uniform that America wanted Iran to wear has flown away, exposing Iran. The whole world discovered Iran’s weakness, confusion and inability to act.
I think that the Iranians feeling and image will push them in the future towards more political adolescence and recklessness in the region.
Therefore, the Gulf leaders must be ready for more robust and resolute steps, using the same approach and decisiveness. The question that arises today in the minds of most political decision-makers in various countries: What are the plans for the future of the region that the Gulf States will adopt in order to counter the shrinking role of US influence in the Gulf? And how will the Gulf people react after establishing their strong hold on the region, especially after the Decisive Storm has revealed the extent of the true strength attributed to Iran and the nature of the allegations of some of our Arab neighbours, who have long expressed their ability to protect the Gulf by telling us that it will only take some time to reach us but did not show up after all.
Today, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf alliance constitute a broad range of strength and the ability to act militarily and politically. It is clear that handing the Gulf over to Iran is no longer possible today in light of this radical change in the balance of political and military power.
Based on that, the new role of the Gulf should be to work hard on the continued expansion of its capabilities and employ its potential to walk in the way of the powerful and the actors by not giving charity out of weakness or using diplomacy because of shortcomings.
Al-Mutanabbi, a famous Arab poet, summed up the situation:
“I can pursue my dream when at ease but not when I fear my enemy.”
The writer is professor in History Department of Kuwait University.