John Lloyd
By John Lloyd
The question — “Are we at war?” — Seems absurd. Surely, we would know it if we were. But maybe we’re in a new era — and wars are creeping up on us.
In the decade after the collapse of communism, the United States and its allies seemed invulnerable to challenges, from military to technological to economic. All changed in the 2000s, the dawning of the third millennium: an Age of Disruption.
Russia, under a president smarting publicly at the loss of the Soviet empire, has now delivered an answer to decline: aggressive claims on lost territories.
China, admired for its free-market-driven growth since the 1980s, is feared for the strategic expansion that now accompanies it. This happens in its own region: a dispute between Beijing and Tokyo over disputed ownership of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands remains tense.
The European Union, seen by its enthusiasts as bound to dominate the 21st century (as the United States the 20th) now wallows in interlocking cul-de-sacs, with a still-fragile currency and an increasingly disaffected Britain straining against what it sees as the EU’s inability to deal with the disaffection among Europeans.
Islamist radicalism, long germinating in the Middle East, has metastasised in the third millennium, and now underlies much of the fear of internal and interstate conflict in Europe and North America — but also in China, Africa and Russia, all afflicted with local variants of the same cancer.
Iraq, as this is written, is at the brink of civil war, already bloody. Syria is deeper into the same trajectory, as is Libya. Egypt is now commanded by the former head of the armed forces, who has shown himself ruthless — so far, popularly so — toward the Muslim Brotherhood, who ran and composed the former government.
In Pakistan, Nigeria and Kenya, terrorist groups as vicious in their practice as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is in Iraq and Syria, have now become more audacious, profiting from the disorganisation of military and security forces.
On Europe’s eastern stretches, Russia and Ukraine both speak peace and practise war. Russia’s expansionism, and President Vladimir Putin’s forthright promise to “protect” all ethnic Russians living outside Russia’s borders in the states of the former Soviet Union worries its neighbours, such as Kazakhstan, which has a large Russian minority concentrated along its northern border with Russia.
Transparency may warn of but doesn’t defuse or prevent conflict. The groups and movements that see causes of war in and around their areas are usually highly motivated and increasingly well-funded. Many nations now expanding their military and extending their strategic reach want to redress old or recent damages. The established order, set in place by the United States and allies after World War Two, clearly trembles.
So the question — Are we at war? — Doesn’t depend on whether we can hear the rumble of guns and the air raid sirens of the European wars of the last century.
The shot that reverberates through our modern, wired world may be fired almost anywhere. Our best hope is that its containment, by over-stretched institutions and a war-weary hegemon, will not prove impossible. REUTERS
By John Lloyd
The question — “Are we at war?” — Seems absurd. Surely, we would know it if we were. But maybe we’re in a new era — and wars are creeping up on us.
In the decade after the collapse of communism, the United States and its allies seemed invulnerable to challenges, from military to technological to economic. All changed in the 2000s, the dawning of the third millennium: an Age of Disruption.
Russia, under a president smarting publicly at the loss of the Soviet empire, has now delivered an answer to decline: aggressive claims on lost territories.
China, admired for its free-market-driven growth since the 1980s, is feared for the strategic expansion that now accompanies it. This happens in its own region: a dispute between Beijing and Tokyo over disputed ownership of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands remains tense.
The European Union, seen by its enthusiasts as bound to dominate the 21st century (as the United States the 20th) now wallows in interlocking cul-de-sacs, with a still-fragile currency and an increasingly disaffected Britain straining against what it sees as the EU’s inability to deal with the disaffection among Europeans.
Islamist radicalism, long germinating in the Middle East, has metastasised in the third millennium, and now underlies much of the fear of internal and interstate conflict in Europe and North America — but also in China, Africa and Russia, all afflicted with local variants of the same cancer.
Iraq, as this is written, is at the brink of civil war, already bloody. Syria is deeper into the same trajectory, as is Libya. Egypt is now commanded by the former head of the armed forces, who has shown himself ruthless — so far, popularly so — toward the Muslim Brotherhood, who ran and composed the former government.
In Pakistan, Nigeria and Kenya, terrorist groups as vicious in their practice as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is in Iraq and Syria, have now become more audacious, profiting from the disorganisation of military and security forces.
On Europe’s eastern stretches, Russia and Ukraine both speak peace and practise war. Russia’s expansionism, and President Vladimir Putin’s forthright promise to “protect” all ethnic Russians living outside Russia’s borders in the states of the former Soviet Union worries its neighbours, such as Kazakhstan, which has a large Russian minority concentrated along its northern border with Russia.
Transparency may warn of but doesn’t defuse or prevent conflict. The groups and movements that see causes of war in and around their areas are usually highly motivated and increasingly well-funded. Many nations now expanding their military and extending their strategic reach want to redress old or recent damages. The established order, set in place by the United States and allies after World War Two, clearly trembles.
So the question — Are we at war? — Doesn’t depend on whether we can hear the rumble of guns and the air raid sirens of the European wars of the last century.
The shot that reverberates through our modern, wired world may be fired almost anywhere. Our best hope is that its containment, by over-stretched institutions and a war-weary hegemon, will not prove impossible. REUTERS
