Professor Yasir Suleiman
By Professor Yasir Suleiman
If you are interested in politics without real blood, Britain would not be a bad place to sojourn for the next few months before the referendum on Europe on 23 June. You would be served a rich menu of argument and counter argument, with a generous dose of British wit and bite, about the merits of leaving Europe or remaining a part of it. To be precise, the argument sought to be about remaining part of the European Union or leaving it, but such niceties of discrimination have no place when the issues at stake are imagined in stark terms: a matter of national demise or national resurrection. Add to that the strong feeling among many, even those who are sympathetic to Europe that the UK is in Europe but not fully part of it in cultural and other ways, and you will begin to understand the intensity of the argument on both sides of the fence.
And what a permeable fence it is. Both the Tories (Conservatives) and Labour, Britain’s two main political forces are divided on Europe, although the consequences of the European debate will be of greater consequence on the former in the run-up to the next general election in 2020, assuming that the present Tory government rules for the full five years. Europe has always been the nemesis of the Tories, as Margaret Thatcher and John Major, British Prime Ministers in the 1980s and 1990s, both discovered to their costs. Although Labour will try to take advantage of the divisions in the Tory ranks, it will face many problems of its own. And on account of his largely ineffectual performance in the debate on Europe at the British Parliament on 23 February, the ability of Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, to articulate the case for Europe is going to be severely tested and may in fact catapult his limitations as a leader to a wider public. Judging by early skirmishes,the contest up to the UK referendum about EU membership on 23 June is going to be of gladiatorial proportions. With an absent Labour party, the Prime Minister David Cameron and the Mayor of London and MP Boris Johnson, a very popular politician, will emerge as chief gladiators, the first batting for Britain in Europe (Remain campaign) and the latter bowling for Britain out of Europe (Leave campaign).
Many of the ‘concessions’ David Cameron ‘won’ from Europe during long negotiations in Brussels with EU leaders two weeks ago are time-limited, in spite of his attempts to package them differently. And some are unlikely to be ever applied unless a majority of European nations join forces to demand them from Brussels, an unlikely scenario indeed. The one durable concession Cameron won is the shielding of Britain from the clause that stipulates the ever increasing political integration of the European project, on which something of a national consensus exists. The Leave campaign was quick to recognise the ephemeral provisionality of Cameron’s deal. Niceties apart, they told him firmly that his deal will not do. Their pronouncements have, so far, been rhetorically effective in terms of tempo and measure, but it is unlikely that the rhetoric of respect, in a state of national discord, will last the full course of the build-up to the referendum. As the campaign on both sides intensifies, the gloves will come off. It is at this stage that Europe will strike back, dividing the Tories and, paradoxically, reminding them in real terms of its power over them and over Britain as a whole.
The Tory protagonists both for and against Europe will initially focus on the economy, this being the stuff of rational debate and the ground on which civility can be tendered and maintained. However, being aware that referendums, like elections, cannot be won through rational argument alone, the protagonists will start to appeal to national pride and uniqueness to the beat of the allegorical rhythms of ‘England’s green and pleasant land’, each to marshal different versions of history. It is at this stage that the argument about migration to Britain from Eastern European countries, never far from the surface of British politics, will ignite with all the phobic ugliness it can discharge, at least on the part of the Leave campaign.
Lurking on the side is Scotland which will add more heat to what already promises to be a searing debate. The Scottish National Party (SNP)governing in Edinburgh, the Scottish capital, will campaign to remain in Europe. Scotland has always been predominantly pro-European for historical reasons as well as to distinguish itself from its Euro-sceptic neighbour to the south. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, a formidable debater, has raised the menacing spectre of Scottish independence again. She will keep reminding her Scottish electorate and the Westminster Parliament that should the UK vote to leave the EU, Scotland, which is certain to side with the Remain campaign, will have good reason to ask for a new referendum on independence. Should the Leave campaign win, the UK will face two major challenges: what to do outside Europe, on the one hand, and the state of the Union among the constituent nations of the United Kingdom on the other. This is why Europe dominates Britain whether Britain likes it or not. And this is why Britain is inescapably defined by Europe and against it at one and the same time.
The writer is President of Doha Institute for Graduate Studies and a Professor at the University of Cambridge.
