Jamal Khashoggi
What will the situation in Iraq and Syria be like by 2030? Of course bad, because there is no reason for optimism. As Arabs we know how to jump into wars and chaos but we don’t know how to come out of these. The bad situation in Iraq did not start with Daesh’s control of Mosul two years ago. In fact the horrible situation began with the US occupation in 2003 and despite all the efforts, money and oil revenues spent, the situation in Iraq is worsening.
The crisis in Syria is five years old with no hope ofa solution in sight. Just to remind us-the civil war in Lebanon continued for fifteen years and the state of Somaliacollapsed 25 years ago. It is pointless optimism to think of solutions without a serious plan to interveneand stop the collapse of these states. The date of 2030, set by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Egypt as a deadline by which to achieve renaissance and move towards the future, is not far away. This means they have to pay more attention to restoring peace and stability to these countries as long as they could agree on joint plan. These two countries are not minor or marginal powers in the region but they represent the majority of the Arab Mashreq, and their neighbors can’t enjoy peace without them.
War can end within days if there is determination and commitment,and this is what the international community and major actors like US lack in Syria and Iraq. This happened in Bosnia 1994. Rehabilitation and reconstruction also can be done within a decade, as also happened in Bosnia, which quickly began to attract foreign savings including those of the GCC.
It is a mistake to bet on possible real change of US policy under a new president, and no one could guarantee this, and the experience of the past few years has shown the bitterness of depending on US alone.
Iraqi government forces and supporting militias will succeed in returning not only Fallujah but also Mosul. These forces are receiving unprecedented support from the US and Iran together-which is very strange. The US and the international community have turned a blind eye to the brutality of the militias against civilians. Even so, this will not be enough to restore peace and stability in Iraq similar to the era of Saddam Hussein, when the country was united under brutal intelligence control.
Perhaps this advance in Falluja will lead to another chapter of chaos and new insurgency under new names. It could be more or less horrible than Daesh, but insurgency is insurgency and will continue to destroy what remained of the state of Iraq- another era of ugly conflicts, generating new forms of conflict and chaos,and then the US forces will pull out of the country leaving behind bloodshed and destruction. The US President then will leaka statement saying “I am fed up with Middle East- Arab and Muslims are just fond of wars”.
Why has this happened in our region and why have we failed to solve our problems like Europe which managed to settle its problems very fast post World War II? The same happened in Korea and Vietnam. It is because of negative foreign interventions and lack of regional agreement on a common project to stand against the challenges and lead towards renaissance.
In the region there are two military camps involved in the conflicts of the Arab Mashreq, and both of them lack common vision. Russia and Iran are united against the Syrian revolution but they have not got a common vision and each of them has his own motives and vision for the future of the country.
Russia seeks to establish an oppressive regime like the one imposed in Chechnya under their protection, to provide them with an area of influence in the Easternpart of the Mediterranean Sea. Russia will give a chance to Iran to implement its sectarian fable project which is unfit fortheir extreme secular and mindset. None of the two visions deserve to survive in a civilized world and they will definitely clash.
On the other hand, there are Saudi, Qatar, Turkey, France and America who agreed on the principle of toppling the Assad’s regime five years ago, but they disagree in all remaining matters. As per the revolution, they disagree about whomto support, priorities, whether to fight at first Daesh or the Assad regime, the quality of weapons to be given to the opposition, and there is even disagreement on the agenda of the peace talks. This has created big doubts about their goals, in particular the American side who always repeat that they are agreed and deny differences.
There was a good understanding during the past two years between Saudi, Qatar and Turkey. They managed to achieve considerable victories on the ground, but these were aborted by the Russian intervention last summer.
These differences create pessimism, because the Arab Mashreq crisis is likely to prolong the prevention of any of the parties achievinga decisive victory. If we take the battle in the Northern part of Syria as an example, the Saudi, Qatari and Turkish support enabled the revolution to realise significant victories and advance towards the coastal area. This victory forced Daesh and Kurdish forces to retreat, but the Russians aborted these advances, creating regional and global confusion.
Last week witnessed the progress of the revolution, with the support of the three alliances, and managed to defeat Hezbollah and the Iranian militias. But who knows this could be one round of the on-going war in Syria. It is not unlikely that Iran could be involved in the war directly by sending more troops to Syria- motivated by the victory in Iraq and benefitting from its relationship with the US which is fighting beside Iran in Fallujah.
If this happened, Saudi Arabia will not give up but it will keep trying to stop their advancement, because it will not allow Iran-whatever the cost- to achieve victory in Syria. It is a cycle of violence and the people of Syria and the region have to pay the price. No one in the region will be safe from terrorism, as happened last week at the border point of Jordan where six border guards were killed.
The cycle of violence will be repeated in Mosul which neither Ankara nor Iraqi Kurdish will accept its surrender to Baghdad and Tehran. The same applies to Al-Raqqah and Manbij, which Turkey considers its weak backyard threatening its national security. Turkey will reject Kurdish expansion in this area, despite US support to the Kurdish, Iraq and Iran. Turkey has missed opportunities to interfere in Syria and now its intervention has become impossible, and yet it needs US approval and support. It is clear that Turkey has the ability to hinder military victories in Mosul, Raqqah and Manbij, taking advantage of the strong opposition facing the new forces. Also, Turkey realizes that this may not be possible without global and region agreement.
There is a possible change in US policy towards Syria, manifested in a letter signed by 51 former diplomats protesting against their country’s policy in Syria. It is a protest that has begun to influence Washington, and supports the Saudi pressure on the US. Although there is no coordination between the two (Saudi and the Diplomats), their idea is the same- military pressure on Al Assad regime, along with a continuation of a negation of peace.
John Kerry met the diplomats and the Saudi Deputy Crown Prince,Mohammed bin Salman,and then the American statements criticizing the role of Russia became more hardline. It is illogical to keep these countries waiting for Washington to change its policy in the last moments of the Obama administration.
In brief, unless Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey develop their coordination into a regional project without depending on Washington, they cannot stop the deterioration and chaos, which will be likely to continue until 2030.
The writer is a Saudi journalist, columnist, author, and the General Manager and Editor-in-Chief of Al Arab News Channel.
