Jackie Ashley
BY Jackie Ashley
Part of the fun of watching politics is the way that unintended consequences shape events. The coalition’s decision to bring in fixed-term, five-year parliaments – in the hope of creating more stability towards the end of a parliament – has had the reverse effect. With the election still 17 months away, Westminster gives the impression that the campaign is already in full swing. Gather a group of politicians together, and the talk will be of little else.
Another unintended consequence, which David Cameron must now be bitterly regretting, stems from his decision to oppose the AV electoral reform campaign. The problem for the prime minister is that he didn’t just oppose it, he seemed to rub the noses of his coalition partners in the fact that he was opposing it, and that they were going to lose. That, in turn, gave the Liberal Democrats the excuse they had been looking for to block the proposed boundary changes that would, according to most experts, have given the Conservatives an extra 20 or so seats. Now it looks as though those 20 seats may well have cost Cameron and the Conservatives their next victory.
Let’s come to a third unintended consequence: Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, did not set out to become the anti-politics politician. His main concern is independence from Europe. Yet his cheeky chappy “let’s enjoy a fag and a pint” image is appealing to those who are thoroughly fed up with “machine” politicians who spout the party line. All the main parties, including Labour, are nervous about just how many votes Ukip is going to pick up at the next election, though its success will obviously hit the Conservatives hardest.
All of which adds up to the fact that the unexpected victor of 2013 has been Ed Miliband. Despite all the mockery, and with an economic recovery now started, he must still be odds-on favourite to win the next general election. I have always thought he could do it. The problem is going to be, what then? But the electoral arithmetic and the electoral logic are stronger than most commentators seem to have acknowledged. The likelihood is that Miliband, possibly with some Lib Dem support, will become the next prime minister.
Does this mean Labour is doomed to win an election that will destroy it for a generation, or longer? Not at all, if the party leadership is clear about the scale of the challenge and has constructed a robust social democratic response to hard times. It’s going to have to win the tax argument afresh. It’s going to have to find ways to get more value for money from the state. It’s going to have to campaign far more aggressively for fairness. And it’s going to have to have a proper industrial strategy, starting to rebalance the economy in the way that the coalition has so woefully failed to do.
We see that some of the old Blairites are being brought back into Miliband’s inner circle to prepare for the election. I think he does need to hear from them, though not for advice on the black arts or electoral planning. Rather, he needs the best advice he can get about what to do in his first 100 days and his first year in office. He is clearly going to try to govern well to the left of the Blair administrations.
But how to govern effectively? How to cope with raging public anger and still get his points across? How to win an argument in the teeth of opposition from the right-wing press? Were I Ed Miliband – and I’m pleased I’m not – that’s what I’d spend my Christmas break thinking about. The one unintended consequence he doesn’t want is Labour winning the election only to lose the next three. THE GUARDIANBY Jackie Ashley
Part of the fun of watching politics is the way that unintended consequences shape events. The coalition’s decision to bring in fixed-term, five-year parliaments – in the hope of creating more stability towards the end of a parliament – has had the reverse effect. With the election still 17 months away, Westminster gives the impression that the campaign is already in full swing. Gather a group of politicians together, and the talk will be of little else.
Another unintended consequence, which David Cameron must now be bitterly regretting, stems from his decision to oppose the AV electoral reform campaign. The problem for the prime minister is that he didn’t just oppose it, he seemed to rub the noses of his coalition partners in the fact that he was opposing it, and that they were going to lose. That, in turn, gave the Liberal Democrats the excuse they had been looking for to block the proposed boundary changes that would, according to most experts, have given the Conservatives an extra 20 or so seats. Now it looks as though those 20 seats may well have cost Cameron and the Conservatives their next victory.
Let’s come to a third unintended consequence: Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, did not set out to become the anti-politics politician. His main concern is independence from Europe. Yet his cheeky chappy “let’s enjoy a fag and a pint” image is appealing to those who are thoroughly fed up with “machine” politicians who spout the party line. All the main parties, including Labour, are nervous about just how many votes Ukip is going to pick up at the next election, though its success will obviously hit the Conservatives hardest.
All of which adds up to the fact that the unexpected victor of 2013 has been Ed Miliband. Despite all the mockery, and with an economic recovery now started, he must still be odds-on favourite to win the next general election. I have always thought he could do it. The problem is going to be, what then? But the electoral arithmetic and the electoral logic are stronger than most commentators seem to have acknowledged. The likelihood is that Miliband, possibly with some Lib Dem support, will become the next prime minister.
Does this mean Labour is doomed to win an election that will destroy it for a generation, or longer? Not at all, if the party leadership is clear about the scale of the challenge and has constructed a robust social democratic response to hard times. It’s going to have to win the tax argument afresh. It’s going to have to find ways to get more value for money from the state. It’s going to have to campaign far more aggressively for fairness. And it’s going to have to have a proper industrial strategy, starting to rebalance the economy in the way that the coalition has so woefully failed to do.
We see that some of the old Blairites are being brought back into Miliband’s inner circle to prepare for the election. I think he does need to hear from them, though not for advice on the black arts or electoral planning. Rather, he needs the best advice he can get about what to do in his first 100 days and his first year in office. He is clearly going to try to govern well to the left of the Blair administrations.
But how to govern effectively? How to cope with raging public anger and still get his points across? How to win an argument in the teeth of opposition from the right-wing press? Were I Ed Miliband – and I’m pleased I’m not – that’s what I’d spend my Christmas break thinking about. The one unintended consequence he doesn’t want is Labour winning the election only to lose the next three. THE GUARDIAN
