Dr Yousuf Ali Al mulla
We have spent months without seeing friends and family, without school or even most of us being able to go to work or holidays.
Scientists around the world are still in trying hard to develop the vaccine to end the corona crisis. Despite easing of procedures and the reopening of some services, people are being encouraged to wear face masks in case if they do not adhere to the social distancing. But, it is as if we are waiting for the miracle to bring normalcy to lives, which does not appear in the horizon!
Perhaps everyone would like to know when the COVID-19 pandemic will end.
Of course, when people ask about when the pandemic will end, they may ask about the end of social distancing or even isolation? In other words, I could say also that the pandemic can end not because of the nature disease but because people are tired of being in a state of fear and anticipation. However it is obvious that people are pushed to adapt and learn to live with the disease.
People also continue to talk about returning to normal, but the future with a permanent virus means that normalcy will not be restored. I can assure here that when we find different ways to adapt and discover a treatment or vaccine, then we will begin to restore our lives.
Nevertheless, can we say now that October 2020 will not look like October of last year due to many potential scenarios, including the fact that the first wave struck early this year with millions infected, and thousands of deaths are expected worldwide by August 2020, with potential small waves that might follow such pandemic.
The second scenario, with the possibility of the pandemic continuing in the coming months of this year globally and might return again for a longer period of time after the summer, as a result of the reduction in the numbers of infected and deaths cases during the summer, which give rise to officials as well as individual in the society to ease health measures and physical distancing and thus failure to pay attention or discover early warning signs that a new outbreak may occur.
Not to mention that the summer weather will not make a difference because most countries are not immune to the disease in the first place, however countries with a warmer or hot climate are still experiencing significant infection rates, such as in Iran and Australia! Moreover, the third possibility or scenario, at which the current wave of the pandemic creates a new normal state, and it continues until the end of 2022.
Interestingly at this stage the best scenario is that an effective vaccine will be developed, if not, then the world will continue to suffer from this pandemic until at least half of the world’s population is infected, with or without the development of disease and possible development of herd immunity.
Despite the darkness that we observe in some of these scenarios, history gives us some glimpses of human experiences with epidemics in the past, including how people lived with the Spanish flu that broke out between 1918 and 1919 and infected about 500 million people, although physician at the time did not have the same methods of fighting the pandemic that we have now, but it ended with turning into a natural infection that gives immunity to those who recover from it. Also, most of us remember swine flu in 2009, when scientists were able to find a vaccine for it, six months after its appearance.
Consequently, we must realize that if any genetic transformation of the virus occurs, it would be difficult currently to find a vaccine for it, as every transformation increases the strength and severity of the virus.
However, the production of the vaccine may be delayed until the end of the year 2021, as one of the members of the World Health Organization mentioned weeks ago, given the stages of development Vaccine.
On the other hand, according to recent studies and due to increased cases of recoveries, there is hope that corona virus will lose some of its properties and thus weaken and become endemic, so that it will spread seasonally and will live like most viruses, hoping such pandemic and its repercussions will end.
Generally speaking, the efforts of researchers around the world are still continuing, and currently over 100 vaccines are under development, including 8 types that have been approved for clinical trials to date.
Nevertheless, there are three laboratories that leading in a race to develop a vaccine. They have begun experimenting with serum on humans, one in the United States, another in China and a third one in the United Kingdom (which is expected to be available next September if proven effective), not forgetting the period of production, then export and distribution which might take more months as well!
No doubt with this stage of the pandemic wave, when the reproduction number R0 (which represents the average number of people expected to be infected by a person with the virus) becomes less than one, then we can think about easing restrictions and social distancing, but if infection spreads again it would be worrying, so it would be reasonable to keep restrictions in place.
It is evident that we understand that easing the restrictions does not mean the end of the corona crisis, but we must start with a clear strategy that includes several steps for gradual exit from social distancing, following a specific time plan and stages through which the results are evaluated and led to adoption of four phased plan of easing restrictions in Qatar.
At the end, individuals bear the responsibility to adhere to the guidelines in order to limit the spread of the virus, wearing masks with physical distancing especially in public places, as third of the people infected with virus do not show any symptoms, but may spread the infection.
Unfortunately this virus is completely new and despite plenty of predictive models, predicting the end of this virus is still not possible, unless the world comes out with vaccine or treatment. Perhaps it has come to stay and the most important question is; will we live with it as safely as influenza viruses?
The writer is a physician, medical innovator and educator. For any queries regarding the content of the column, he can be contacted at:[email protected]
