Jamal Khashoggi
It was very necessary for Saudi Arabic to announce its readiness to send ground forces into Syria, as well as to call for a military manoeuvre of “Ra’ad Al Shamal” or “Northern Thunder”. This Saudi move would get together soldiers of several Islamic countries on its territory, the largest military gathering since the Gulf War for the liberation of Kuwait.
The announcement made follows on from another announcement, a month ago, about the first meeting of leaders of the “Islamic Alliance”, surprising the world. The world was confused about the momentum gained in Riyadh, but Saudi Arabia has successfully shifted the focus to an issue that the international community cannot forget.
This active move of Saudi Arabia will put an end to the conspiracy being hatched to end the Syrian revolution. It does not need an intellectual argument to prove it. The United States is retreating and does not have the will to stand up against Russia, followed by Western countries. Some of them may say that his country does not agree with President Vladimir Putin on moral grounds as his soldiers are committing war crimes. However they will admit that they do not have many options left.
There is no other sanction left to impose on Russia. The world did what they could in the war of Ukraine and Crimea, where they lost the battle. The politics among opportunist countries is based on this principle- ‘if you cannot beat them then join them’- interpreted as ‘if you can’t defeat them, make them partners’. It is villainy but they call it realistic politics.
The realistic politics of Westerners, and unfortunately of some Arabs, cause them to think that the best thing to do is to accept the Russian solution. Putin did it in Chechnya so why it should not be repeated in Syria? This policy will support the Bashar regime until it wins the battle by force, terrorising his people in order to bring back the old Arabic system based on ruling by fear for the sake of stability. This will actually kill IS, after all it will have served its purpose. The people will then have to accept it willy-nilly, despite the fact that Assad’s power had previously been reduced to zero with few alternatives left.
Most of the Syrian people have been forced to die- in bombardment or starvation, or to leave and seek asylum elsewhere, both of which they would rather do than live under this tyrant. Who can provide a livelihood and, most importantly, safety to them at a time when so much of the world is turning its face from this hapless people?
They will be cheated of their rights, in the name of reforms and elections, even without Bashar Al Assad. There are many people who want to be Qaderoof who ruled under Russian mandate. I still remember what Russian orientalist, Elena Suponina, said to me in a conference about Russian intervention in Syria: “Grozny (the capital of Chechnya) is no more the destroyed city that it was before. It has become the ‘Dubai of the Caucasus’. It is a good phrase for a public relations campaign…..
Several towers in Aleppo, between the ruins of the old buildings, could maybe in the future be presented as designs, showcased in an exhibition organised at the sidelines of the Donors’ Conference held in Damascus, under the sponsorship of the newly elected president of Syria! For which other purpose could they could they invite Arabs and non Arabs from different parts of the world to a conference?- Maybe to say: “We have won the War on ‘terrorism’ ”?!
But what kind of Syria will it be? - A Syria of oppression and fear? Some people are missing the fact that the revolution was originally not between districts and races, or even sects but mostly against unjust dictatorship. Such a solution says to the people of Syria, “You have to accept dictatorship- otherwise just stay refugees where you are. We will leave you to decide either to come back or to integrate with the people of the host countries. However, continuing in defending your freedom will make you terrorist.”
As usual there must be a distribution of booties among the winners. Russia must have its permanent military bases in the Eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea, and Iran wants all of Syria as an ally of its regime and a protector. It is going to use Syria as platform for its sectarian project which is against the future and the progress of history. Iran is causing sectarian sedition in the region, but still it insists that it did not spent billions of dollars, or lose the elite of its fighters in vain or for simply keeping Assad in power, but rather for the major prize which is Syria.
I have no specific answer about what exactly Riyadh wants to do. Its diplomatic and military activeness are considered by some to be challenging and risky, regarding the issue of defending the nation. I also have no answer about when, from where, and with how many ground troops, it is going to enter Syria, and with whom as allies. But what I am sure about is that Saudi Arabia will not accept a win by Iran in Syria, making the “Arab’s beating heart” a platform to change the history and identity of the region. This is the principle according which the Saudi government will deal with the world and the region, and all should take this factor into account.
It is worth mentioning that no Saudi official has promised a quick victory. The night ahead will be very long, starting with restoring balance in Syria, following the imbalance that occurred after the failure of Geneva negotiations, and after the head of the regime’s delegation, Bashar Al Jaffari, began to dictate his conditions with unprecedented arrogance. Assad wants the opposition to surrender, after being backed up by the Russian forces killing his people.
What happened in Geneva pushed Saudi Arabia to speed up what is called by the foreign minister Adel Al Jubeir ‘Plan B’. Regardless of the details of this plan, the important thing is its main condition which is the principle I mentioned above- in brief “Syria without Iran”.
The plan announced said Saudi Arabia is ready to intervene in Syria, putting US and Westerners, including Friends of Syria, to the test. It is as if it wants to say to the Americans who were repeatedly saying: “You are not doing much to fight Daesh”, that “We are here and ready- so are you ready too? The ball is now in their field.
How this intervention will end, and what is its size and limitations will eventually be, even the Saudi strategic planners do not know exactly.
Whatever the cost is, every intervention starts small and then grows. As for fighting Da’esh, an entity spawned by the Syrian ‘revolution’, interventions could expand to meet this purpose, because no one hates Da’esh more than Saudi Arabia.
Syrian national forces, representing the Syrian people, will engage in fierce fighting against Da’esh, because they made no effort to replace the secular dictator, but are a fanatic group trying to monopolise the knowledge of religion and its interpretation.
If any role for the Syrian revolution is needed then they have to be protected from the multiple attacks by the government, Russia, Kurds and Da’esh. If fighting Da’esh is major justification for military interventions to bring peace to Syria, then removal of the regime will make the peace much more sustainable.
At the same time that the Saudi government is actively trying to convince its allies to share its view point, there is need to prepare Saudi’s people for this long night. This is because some of our people are cautious, and lack confidence in our abilities, and they will simply say how we fight on two fronts (Yemen and Syria). Therefore it is time to start a media campaign to mobilise the public.
