Herman Schwartz
By Herman Schwartz
Unless the Democrats wake up to the importance of winning state legislative elections, they are likely to remain a largely weak impotent minority in the House of Representatives and equally feeble in the state legislatures. The momentous Supreme Court decisions on the Voting Rights Act, same-sex marriage and affirmative action make winning these races all the more vital, for all these rulings deal with state action. The huge Republican victory in the 2010 election could turn out to be a gift that keeps giving.
The GOP electoral sweep in 2010 was no accident. Republicans understand the importance of the state legislative races. After the 2008 election the GOP adopted a strategy called the REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). As Karl Rove explained:
“[S]ome of the most important contests this fall will be way down the ballot in... state legislative races that will determine who redraws congressional district lines after this year’s census, a process that could determine which party controls upwards of 20 seats and whether many other seats will be competitive.”
Republicans focused on 107 state legislative seats in 16 states where GOP wins in four or five Democratic districts per state would enable the Republicans to re-shape about 190 congressional districts. Leading GOP strategist Ed Gillespie ran this operation.
He took over the Republican State Leadership Committee, and the party poured more than $30m into these contests. It also spent many millions on various gubernatorial contests. REDMAP succeeded brilliantly. In 2010, the GOP netted some 700 state seats, increasing its share of state House and Senate seats by almost 10 percent, from approximately 3200 to over 3900.
It took over both legislative chambers in 25 states and won total control of 21 states (legislature and governorship) — the greatest such victory since 1928. In 17 of these states, GOP legislatures controlled the congressional redistricting for 173 seats. The other five GOP states have only one congressional district or rely on an independent commission.
North Carolina provides a striking example. The state’s congressional vote and delegation had usually split closely in the decade since 2002. In 2010, for example, the House delegation was 7 to 6 Democratic. After the 2011 gerrymandering however, the results no longer reflected the state’s fairly even partisan split. In 2012, the Democrats won more congressional votes than the Republicans, 50 percent to 48.9 percent, but the new gerrymandering gave the GOP a 9 to 4 congressional majority.
Overall, Democratic House voters outnumbered Republicans in seven Republican states, but gerrymanders in those states produced Republican majorities in their congressional delegations.
We can expect to see many more such measures after the Supreme Court’s recent Shelby County vs Holder decision striking down the formula in Section 4 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act that determines which jurisdictions are likely to discriminate against racial and language minorities, and require federal approval for all voting changes there.
Now, however, these states and localities will be able to adopt a multitude of measures aimed at either reducing the minority vote or eliminating minority officeholders.
During 2011-12, some 24 states adopted approximately 135 anti-abortion restrictions, and 43 more so far this year. For example, many red states now require that women’s reproductive rights clinics meet the same standards as hospital surgical centres, forcing a great number of these clinics to close, especially in rural areas.
GOP-controlled states have also passed severe anti-union measures, including a right-to-work law in Michigan. North Carolina has drastically cut unemployment benefits. Other states have cut taxes for the rich while raising sales taxes, and many have sabotaged the Affordable Care Act and other safety net measures.
The two other Supreme Court decisions also depend on state action. The federal benefits granted same-sex couples by the Supreme Court’s Defence of Marriage Act decision are available only for marriages performed in states that legalise gay marriage — 35 states continue to prohibit it.
The GOP gerrymanders will also affect the coming 2014 elections, for they could contribute to wiping out the meagre House Democratic gains in 2012. In addition, eight democratic senators from states that GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney won easily in 2012 are either retiring or are vulnerable. If Democrats wind up with five fewer Senate seats, the GOP will control both houses of Congress.
There are some bright spots for Democrats. They have an opportunity to unseat Republican governors in Florida, Maine, Pennsylvania and possibly Ohio and Michigan.
The Republican success in blocking background checks for gun purchases may induce at least some of the 91 percent of Americans who support such checks to come out and vote against the Republicans, especially women. Should the Republicans obstruct congressional efforts to repair the damage done to the Voting Rights Act by the Supreme Court’s Republican majority, which is likely, they could antagonise minority voters even more — propelling them to come out and vote.
If the Democrats want to avoid another debacle like in 2010, the party must realise that, when it comes to voting and other vital matters, our Constitution makes the state legislatures more important than Congress.
The Democratic Party must overcome its usual midterm torpor and persuade its minority, female, and young supporters not only to vote in 2014 — which they did not do in 2010 — but also not to ignore the down-ballot state elections.
Democrats must put together a campaign for the state offices — at the national and state levels, well-financed and with strong local organisations and good candidates. They must build towards the long term — for the GOP gerrymandering is so extensive that probably most Democrats can hope for in the 2014 elections is to limit their losses.
The democracy the Framers bequeathed us requires voters’ constant attention not only to Washington but also to the state capitols. The Republicans know this. So far, however, the Democrats don’t.
REUTERS
By Herman Schwartz
Unless the Democrats wake up to the importance of winning state legislative elections, they are likely to remain a largely weak impotent minority in the House of Representatives and equally feeble in the state legislatures. The momentous Supreme Court decisions on the Voting Rights Act, same-sex marriage and affirmative action make winning these races all the more vital, for all these rulings deal with state action. The huge Republican victory in the 2010 election could turn out to be a gift that keeps giving.
The GOP electoral sweep in 2010 was no accident. Republicans understand the importance of the state legislative races. After the 2008 election the GOP adopted a strategy called the REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). As Karl Rove explained:
“[S]ome of the most important contests this fall will be way down the ballot in... state legislative races that will determine who redraws congressional district lines after this year’s census, a process that could determine which party controls upwards of 20 seats and whether many other seats will be competitive.”
Republicans focused on 107 state legislative seats in 16 states where GOP wins in four or five Democratic districts per state would enable the Republicans to re-shape about 190 congressional districts. Leading GOP strategist Ed Gillespie ran this operation.
He took over the Republican State Leadership Committee, and the party poured more than $30m into these contests. It also spent many millions on various gubernatorial contests. REDMAP succeeded brilliantly. In 2010, the GOP netted some 700 state seats, increasing its share of state House and Senate seats by almost 10 percent, from approximately 3200 to over 3900.
It took over both legislative chambers in 25 states and won total control of 21 states (legislature and governorship) — the greatest such victory since 1928. In 17 of these states, GOP legislatures controlled the congressional redistricting for 173 seats. The other five GOP states have only one congressional district or rely on an independent commission.
North Carolina provides a striking example. The state’s congressional vote and delegation had usually split closely in the decade since 2002. In 2010, for example, the House delegation was 7 to 6 Democratic. After the 2011 gerrymandering however, the results no longer reflected the state’s fairly even partisan split. In 2012, the Democrats won more congressional votes than the Republicans, 50 percent to 48.9 percent, but the new gerrymandering gave the GOP a 9 to 4 congressional majority.
Overall, Democratic House voters outnumbered Republicans in seven Republican states, but gerrymanders in those states produced Republican majorities in their congressional delegations.
We can expect to see many more such measures after the Supreme Court’s recent Shelby County vs Holder decision striking down the formula in Section 4 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act that determines which jurisdictions are likely to discriminate against racial and language minorities, and require federal approval for all voting changes there.
Now, however, these states and localities will be able to adopt a multitude of measures aimed at either reducing the minority vote or eliminating minority officeholders.
During 2011-12, some 24 states adopted approximately 135 anti-abortion restrictions, and 43 more so far this year. For example, many red states now require that women’s reproductive rights clinics meet the same standards as hospital surgical centres, forcing a great number of these clinics to close, especially in rural areas.
GOP-controlled states have also passed severe anti-union measures, including a right-to-work law in Michigan. North Carolina has drastically cut unemployment benefits. Other states have cut taxes for the rich while raising sales taxes, and many have sabotaged the Affordable Care Act and other safety net measures.
The two other Supreme Court decisions also depend on state action. The federal benefits granted same-sex couples by the Supreme Court’s Defence of Marriage Act decision are available only for marriages performed in states that legalise gay marriage — 35 states continue to prohibit it.
The GOP gerrymanders will also affect the coming 2014 elections, for they could contribute to wiping out the meagre House Democratic gains in 2012. In addition, eight democratic senators from states that GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney won easily in 2012 are either retiring or are vulnerable. If Democrats wind up with five fewer Senate seats, the GOP will control both houses of Congress.
There are some bright spots for Democrats. They have an opportunity to unseat Republican governors in Florida, Maine, Pennsylvania and possibly Ohio and Michigan.
The Republican success in blocking background checks for gun purchases may induce at least some of the 91 percent of Americans who support such checks to come out and vote against the Republicans, especially women. Should the Republicans obstruct congressional efforts to repair the damage done to the Voting Rights Act by the Supreme Court’s Republican majority, which is likely, they could antagonise minority voters even more — propelling them to come out and vote.
If the Democrats want to avoid another debacle like in 2010, the party must realise that, when it comes to voting and other vital matters, our Constitution makes the state legislatures more important than Congress.
The Democratic Party must overcome its usual midterm torpor and persuade its minority, female, and young supporters not only to vote in 2014 — which they did not do in 2010 — but also not to ignore the down-ballot state elections.
Democrats must put together a campaign for the state offices — at the national and state levels, well-financed and with strong local organisations and good candidates. They must build towards the long term — for the GOP gerrymandering is so extensive that probably most Democrats can hope for in the 2014 elections is to limit their losses.
The democracy the Framers bequeathed us requires voters’ constant attention not only to Washington but also to the state capitols. The Republicans know this. So far, however, the Democrats don’t.
REUTERS
