Andrew Quinn
By Andrew Quinn
North Korea’s successful rocket launch poses a fresh quandary for the United States, underscoring how its “shame and sanction” approach to Pyongyang has failed to stop the country’s dangerous advances in both nuclear and missile technology, analysts and officials said on Wednesday.
The Obama administration has condemned Wednesday’s launch as a “highly provocative act” for which there would be “consequences” and has began working at the UN Security Council on steps which could broaden existing sanctions on North Korea - already the most isolated country in the world. .
Officials say the immediate US task is to try to win stronger support from China — North Korea’s lone major ally — for enforcing existing sanctions and potentially agreeing to new steps such as adding more entities to the UN blacklist, banning travel and freezing assets of individual North Korean officials, and tightening of a cargo-inspection regime.
But beyond that, US policy options look thin in the face of fresh evidence that North Korea is on its way toward marrying its nuclear programme to a missile capable of hitting the US West Coast.
“There has been an unspoken tendency in the United States to discount these tests as yet another foolish attempt by the technologically backward and bizarre country. This is no longer acceptable,” Victor Cha, a North Korea expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies wrote in an analysis following the launch.
“The question is, will the United States do something else given the new strategic threat posed by the North, or will we wait for them to cross the next threshold to becoming a full-fledged nuclear threat to the US homeland?”
FEARS, SETBACKS AND FAILURES
US officials say their path has been complicated by continued resistance from Beijing, which is already embroiled in maritime territorial disputes with US allies and wary of a US strategy of rebalancing its military forces from the Middle East and South Asia toward the Asia Pacific.
“Administrations of both parties have worked at this problem for decades. No one has yet found a solution that will stick, and that’s largely because all of the major players have never agreed to line up together,” one senior administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
US officials stress that the Obama administration has repeatedly sought to set relations with Pyongyang on a more positive track, culminating in a framework agreement early this year that would have North Korea suspend major elements of its weapons programmes in return for US food aid.
That deal quickly collapsed as North Korea defied international pressure and pushed ahead with an earlier rocket launch in April. That test failed when the rocket broke apart in mid-flight.
The United States and its allies say such launches are tantamount to a test of ballistic missile technology forbidden by UN Security Council resolutions. North Korea says they are part of a civilian space programme.
Analysts say North Korea still has a long way to go before it becomes a direct threat to the United States. But with key US allies including Japan and South Korea increasingly anxious, pressure is likely to build on Washington to develop some new strategies.
“The ability to boost a rocket and keep it afloat for just over nine minutes has very little to do with hitting Seattle, but you are much more nervous if you are Japan or the Philippines,” said George Lopez, a North Korea analyst at University of Notre Dame.
ARMS OR AID
State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said US officials were consulting with major US Asian allies, as well as with China, on the next steps. But she indicated there was little immediate appetite for new overtures to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who took power last year following the death of his father.
“This is taking them in the wrong direction,” Nuland said. “He can spend his time and his money shooting off missiles, or he can feed his people. But he can’t have both.”
Wednesday’s launch prompted fresh calls in the US Congress for more pressure on China to rein in its belligerent and impoverished ally, along with demands for a fresh look at missile defence preparations of the United States and its allies.
“This should be cause for a change in policy and attitude in dealings with North Korea. And the first thing I think we have to do is have a serious bilateral discussion with China,” Rep Mike Rogers, the Michigan Republican who chairs the House of Representatives Intelligence Committee, said in an interview.
Early signs have not been encouraging. In a UN Security Council debate on possible new sanctions on Wednesday, one diplomat said US and Chinese representatives had a “spirited discussion” on the best way forward.
“The word ‘ridiculous’ was used more than once,” the diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Ultimately, analysts say that Washington may yet find a way to edge back into multilateral “six-party” disarmament talks which broke down in 2008. Despite previous setbacks and failures, little else appears likely to work, they said.
Reuters
By Andrew Quinn
North Korea’s successful rocket launch poses a fresh quandary for the United States, underscoring how its “shame and sanction” approach to Pyongyang has failed to stop the country’s dangerous advances in both nuclear and missile technology, analysts and officials said on Wednesday.
The Obama administration has condemned Wednesday’s launch as a “highly provocative act” for which there would be “consequences” and has began working at the UN Security Council on steps which could broaden existing sanctions on North Korea - already the most isolated country in the world. .
Officials say the immediate US task is to try to win stronger support from China — North Korea’s lone major ally — for enforcing existing sanctions and potentially agreeing to new steps such as adding more entities to the UN blacklist, banning travel and freezing assets of individual North Korean officials, and tightening of a cargo-inspection regime.
But beyond that, US policy options look thin in the face of fresh evidence that North Korea is on its way toward marrying its nuclear programme to a missile capable of hitting the US West Coast.
“There has been an unspoken tendency in the United States to discount these tests as yet another foolish attempt by the technologically backward and bizarre country. This is no longer acceptable,” Victor Cha, a North Korea expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies wrote in an analysis following the launch.
“The question is, will the United States do something else given the new strategic threat posed by the North, or will we wait for them to cross the next threshold to becoming a full-fledged nuclear threat to the US homeland?”
FEARS, SETBACKS AND FAILURES
US officials say their path has been complicated by continued resistance from Beijing, which is already embroiled in maritime territorial disputes with US allies and wary of a US strategy of rebalancing its military forces from the Middle East and South Asia toward the Asia Pacific.
“Administrations of both parties have worked at this problem for decades. No one has yet found a solution that will stick, and that’s largely because all of the major players have never agreed to line up together,” one senior administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
US officials stress that the Obama administration has repeatedly sought to set relations with Pyongyang on a more positive track, culminating in a framework agreement early this year that would have North Korea suspend major elements of its weapons programmes in return for US food aid.
That deal quickly collapsed as North Korea defied international pressure and pushed ahead with an earlier rocket launch in April. That test failed when the rocket broke apart in mid-flight.
The United States and its allies say such launches are tantamount to a test of ballistic missile technology forbidden by UN Security Council resolutions. North Korea says they are part of a civilian space programme.
Analysts say North Korea still has a long way to go before it becomes a direct threat to the United States. But with key US allies including Japan and South Korea increasingly anxious, pressure is likely to build on Washington to develop some new strategies.
“The ability to boost a rocket and keep it afloat for just over nine minutes has very little to do with hitting Seattle, but you are much more nervous if you are Japan or the Philippines,” said George Lopez, a North Korea analyst at University of Notre Dame.
ARMS OR AID
State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said US officials were consulting with major US Asian allies, as well as with China, on the next steps. But she indicated there was little immediate appetite for new overtures to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who took power last year following the death of his father.
“This is taking them in the wrong direction,” Nuland said. “He can spend his time and his money shooting off missiles, or he can feed his people. But he can’t have both.”
Wednesday’s launch prompted fresh calls in the US Congress for more pressure on China to rein in its belligerent and impoverished ally, along with demands for a fresh look at missile defence preparations of the United States and its allies.
“This should be cause for a change in policy and attitude in dealings with North Korea. And the first thing I think we have to do is have a serious bilateral discussion with China,” Rep Mike Rogers, the Michigan Republican who chairs the House of Representatives Intelligence Committee, said in an interview.
Early signs have not been encouraging. In a UN Security Council debate on possible new sanctions on Wednesday, one diplomat said US and Chinese representatives had a “spirited discussion” on the best way forward.
“The word ‘ridiculous’ was used more than once,” the diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Ultimately, analysts say that Washington may yet find a way to edge back into multilateral “six-party” disarmament talks which broke down in 2008. Despite previous setbacks and failures, little else appears likely to work, they said.
Reuters
