Marc Lynch
The Washington Post
It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see that the Middle East’s 2020 will be tumultuous. Libya’s civil war has taken a dangerous turn, with Russian mercenaries and Turkish forces joining the fray as Gen. Khalifa Hifter’s forces push into the capital. Yemen’s still ravaged by economic blockade and war, despite recent efforts on all sides to de-escalate the conflict. Syria’s civil war continues to metastasize, with a massive new wave of refugees fleeing violence in Idlib. Large-scale popular protests are challenging Iraq’s government, which is bracing for fallout from the growing confrontation between the United States and Iran. Israel and the Palestinian territories could dramatically change their relationship, as the prospects of a two-state solution dissolve. And protest movements throughout the region could shake up half a dozen regimes.
Here are three trends to watch in the Middle East over the coming year.
1. Every government is on edge about the US 2020 election
Usually, when the US government changes hands, US foreign policy in the Middle East remains steady and consistent. No more. If a Democrat replaces Donald Trump in the Oval Office, Middle Eastern regimes expect sharply reversed policies on such front-line issues as the nuclear agreement with Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian relationship, relations with Turkey, and alliances in the Gulf. If Trump remains in office, he will be unleashed, convinced by his electoral success that even his most controversial policies were right.
Facing such different possible futures, Middle Eastern governments could choose one of two approaches. They have good reason to be cautious, reaching out to both sides of the American partisan divide to ensure continuity in their relations. But some may see a closing window of opportunity for cherished goals - including potentially destabilizing moves that the Trump administration may wish to encourage, seeing possible political advantages. That means there’s an unusually high risk that Israel will annex the West Bank or launch a major military strike against Iran or Hezbollah over the next 11 months.
Some key regional players placed all their bets on Trump’s presidency. Their enthusiastic embrace of Trump brought near-complete impunity for their regional adventurism, atrocities, and controversial domestic policies. That close relationship came at a cost, though: Both Congress and the US public increasingly identified them as Republican allies. Their assessment of the likelihood of a new American administration in 2020 will likely guide their decision-making in the coming months.
2. Conflicts in the Gulf region are getting harder to control
The Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran has inflicted economic pain - while accomplishing few or none of its strategic objectives. For all its internal problems, the regime is unlikely to collapse. Seeing no diplomatic openings ahead, Iran and its proxies have launched a series of escalating attacks on US interests. After avoiding responding to such earlier incidents as suspected Iranian attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, the US bombed Katai’b Hezbollah targets in Iraq. While all players have thus far managed the conflict to avoid escalation, this will become increasingly difficult. Expect continued escalation between Iran and the United States across the Arabian Gulf region, Iraq, Syria and even Lebanon as these dynamics continue.
Even without war, Iraq will suffer the collateral damage of this confrontation, as it is torn between its close relations with both Iran and the United States. Remarkably, the Trump administration has abandoned the US strategic consensus that it’s essential to support the Iraqi government that the United States largely created - and has instead single-mindedly focused on confronting Iran and its allies, even when that endangers the coalition’s campaign against the Islamic State. The US strike against an Iranian-backed militia has been predictably destabilizing. Protesters stormed the US Embassy in Baghdad, as popular opinion which had been focused on Iran’s presence in recent weeks has turned sharply against the United States.
