Syrian civil war, which has lasted more than seven years and claimed lives of around 500,000, has forced millions of its residents to migrate to neighbouring states, leaving behind massive destruction of their towns, villages and infrastructures.
Following huge sacrifices and ousting regime forces from over 80 percent of Syria, the opposition forces now have control over a small pocket of Idlib. This small province is a safe haven created for civilians under the de-escalation zones agreement.
Factors led to this situation may vary, but Russian and Iranian military support has helped the Assad regime to recover much of the territory that was lost to rebels in the last years due to a lack of credible support from the international community to the revolution.
Eventually, the Syrian issue seems to be summed up in maintaining the cease-fire in Idlib, formation of constitutional committee and voluntary return of millions of refugees who fled the conflict. While the regime’s priority has become reconstruction of what has been destroyed during the war, setting restrictions and conditions on refugees’ return, not to mention the demand of millions of Syrians for accountability and bring war criminals to justice.
Last Saturday, leaders of Turkey, Russia, France and Germany held a summit in Istanbul on Syria, and they called on Syrians to lead efforts to make peace in their war-torn country. In a final statement, the four leaders called for “an inclusive Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process,” pointing out that the convening of the constitutional committee by the end of this year to work on new constitution that would paves way for the U N-backed free and fair elections. Damascus rejected the plan set by the special envoy for formation of the constitutional committee, as well the UN having a role in the selection process.
There is a belief that cease-fire in Idlib will help in providing some momentum for peace efforts, as the truce last month prevented a Syrian government offensive on the last rebel stronghold which is home for around four million civilians and tens of rebel groups. The leaders, who set aside divisions over President Bashar Al Assad, have their differences over the refugee return for which Russia is pushing tirelessly.
French President Emmanuel Macron emphasised: “There will be no real, sustainable, credible return of the refugees if the political process is not initiated”. German Chancellor Angels Merkel made it clear also that there must not be persecution or arrests and certain fundamental humanitarian conditions and infrastructure must be fulfilled and the return process must be closely coordinated with the U N refugee agency.
Of course the cease-fire in Idlib has helped protecting civilians and prevented influx of refugees to Turkey and Europe, but the area will remain unstable as long as there are threats from Kurdish armed groups to Turkey, the Islamic State activities in eastern Syria and the border with Iraq while there is no guarantee that the regime could breach the cease-fire under different arguments and justifications.
Encouraging a political solution and strengthen international consensus may not be enough to force the regime to sit for negotiations without preconditions to find a solution satisfactory to the Syrian people.
