The nuclear deal reached in July between Iran and six major powers was hailed as a historic achievement and nobody had even doubted that the deal would face any significant threat. But in the subsequent weeks, the agreement faced major hurdles in the US where the Republicans and the Jewish groups threatened to do everything to scuttle it.
But after two months of fierce campaigning by opponents, President Barack Obama has won with 42 Democrats saying publicly that they will nevertheless support it. The tally gives Obama enough backing to stop a GOP effort to undo the deal in the Senate, without needing to exercise a veto, if all of those backers support a filibuster. Republicans and other opponents might still try to come up with new ideas to block the deal, but there seems no way that a delay in congressional action will change the result: the agreement will take effect.
Now that the deal is a certainty, it’s for all to plan the future. The US and other powers which signed the deal have a duty to make sure that Tehran abides strictly by the terms of the deal and make the inspection regime fool-proof to detect Iranian violations. Despite its declarations that it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons, Iran will not let go of any opportunity to acquire nuclear capabilities considering its ambitions in the region.
There are enough indications that the nuclear deal will not bring about a change in Iran’s policies. For example, its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who allowed the deal to go forward, in remarks on his website and in posts on Twitter, has predicted that Israel will not exist in 25 years and ruled out new negotiations with the United States. Such jingoistic comments can only disturb peace. Tehran has an open agenda of widening the Shia influence in the region and the Islamic world and it’s likely to use the windfalls from the deal to push this agenda.
The general perception is that the deal will constrain Iran’s nuclear activity and improve the regional security. But people in our region may not fully agree with this perspective. It’s for this reason that Gulf leaders are demanding stronger security guarantees from the US.
The Gulf countries will have to rethink their strategy to keep the region safe and peaceful. They will have to spend more on defence and improve relations with their allies. According to reports, Iran has the largest inventory of short and medium-range cruise and ballistic missiles in the region.
The US is working on a regional missile defense system in the Gulf to counter this threat, and Gulf countries are boosting their military. The region and the world are stepping into a new ear after the Iran deal.
The nuclear deal reached in July between Iran and six major powers was hailed as a historic achievement and nobody had even doubted that the deal would face any significant threat. But in the subsequent weeks, the agreement faced major hurdles in the US where the Republicans and the Jewish groups threatened to do everything to scuttle it.
But after two months of fierce campaigning by opponents, President Barack Obama has won with 42 Democrats saying publicly that they will nevertheless support it. The tally gives Obama enough backing to stop a GOP effort to undo the deal in the Senate, without needing to exercise a veto, if all of those backers support a filibuster. Republicans and other opponents might still try to come up with new ideas to block the deal, but there seems no way that a delay in congressional action will change the result: the agreement will take effect.
Now that the deal is a certainty, it’s for all to plan the future. The US and other powers which signed the deal have a duty to make sure that Tehran abides strictly by the terms of the deal and make the inspection regime fool-proof to detect Iranian violations. Despite its declarations that it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons, Iran will not let go of any opportunity to acquire nuclear capabilities considering its ambitions in the region.
There are enough indications that the nuclear deal will not bring about a change in Iran’s policies. For example, its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who allowed the deal to go forward, in remarks on his website and in posts on Twitter, has predicted that Israel will not exist in 25 years and ruled out new negotiations with the United States. Such jingoistic comments can only disturb peace. Tehran has an open agenda of widening the Shia influence in the region and the Islamic world and it’s likely to use the windfalls from the deal to push this agenda.
The general perception is that the deal will constrain Iran’s nuclear activity and improve the regional security. But people in our region may not fully agree with this perspective. It’s for this reason that Gulf leaders are demanding stronger security guarantees from the US.
The Gulf countries will have to rethink their strategy to keep the region safe and peaceful. They will have to spend more on defence and improve relations with their allies. According to reports, Iran has the largest inventory of short and medium-range cruise and ballistic missiles in the region.
The US is working on a regional missile defense system in the Gulf to counter this threat, and Gulf countries are boosting their military. The region and the world are stepping into a new ear after the Iran deal.
