The Syrian ceasefire is on the verge of collapse with the Russian air force and Syrian military planning a joint operation to take Aleppo from the rebels. There have always been fears that the truce will continue only as long as the Assad regime wants it to continue and the statement of Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halak about the impending Aleppo operation corroborates these fears. In fact, the government forces have been using the ceasefire period to prepare themselves for another onslaught. “We, together with our Russian partners, are preparing for an operation to liberate Aleppo and to block all illegal armed groups which have not joined or have broken the ceasefire deal,” he was quoted as saying by TASS news agency.
The ‘cessation of hostilities’ agreement was brokered by Russia and the United States and came into effect in February with the aim of paving the way for a resumption of talks to end the five-year-long war. There have been reports of widespread violations of the ceasefire, for which both sides blamed each other, but it has generally held in the absence of major violations. But an upsurge in fighting south of Aleppo this month, in which rebel groups have gained some ground, was the most significant challenge to the deal. The Syrian government is now reacting to this rebel action. The rebels have already reported resumption of heavy Russian air strikes south of Aleppo, an important theatre where Iranian forces and Lebanon’s Hezbollah are fighting in support of the Syrian army. And Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi said the Aleppo operation would be “large-scale and continuous”, saying there was no truce in the area because the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front and groups linked to it were operating there.
The collapse of ceasefire will endanger the peace talks too which are already sputtering due to the intransigence of the Assad regime and their refusal to make any concessions to make the talks work. The main difference is over the future of President Bashar Al Assad. The Syrian opposition, America and many Arab countries have said any compromise should not include the continuation of Assad in power whereas the Syrian government has maintained that discussion on Assad’s fate is a redline.
The Aleppo operation can change the direction of the Syrian civil war. If the army succeeds in retaking the city, it will further strengthen Assad and his regime and can kill the peace process, thus ultimately paving the way for the continuation of Assad. If the rebels are able to withstand the army onslaught, there is a hope that they can build on those gains or at least maintain the status quo.
The Syrian ceasefire is on the verge of collapse with the Russian air force and Syrian military planning a joint operation to take Aleppo from the rebels. There have always been fears that the truce will continue only as long as the Assad regime wants it to continue and the statement of Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halak about the impending Aleppo operation corroborates these fears. In fact, the government forces have been using the ceasefire period to prepare themselves for another onslaught. “We, together with our Russian partners, are preparing for an operation to liberate Aleppo and to block all illegal armed groups which have not joined or have broken the ceasefire deal,” he was quoted as saying by TASS news agency.
The ‘cessation of hostilities’ agreement was brokered by Russia and the United States and came into effect in February with the aim of paving the way for a resumption of talks to end the five-year-long war. There have been reports of widespread violations of the ceasefire, for which both sides blamed each other, but it has generally held in the absence of major violations. But an upsurge in fighting south of Aleppo this month, in which rebel groups have gained some ground, was the most significant challenge to the deal. The Syrian government is now reacting to this rebel action. The rebels have already reported resumption of heavy Russian air strikes south of Aleppo, an important theatre where Iranian forces and Lebanon’s Hezbollah are fighting in support of the Syrian army. And Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi said the Aleppo operation would be “large-scale and continuous”, saying there was no truce in the area because the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front and groups linked to it were operating there.
The collapse of ceasefire will endanger the peace talks too which are already sputtering due to the intransigence of the Assad regime and their refusal to make any concessions to make the talks work. The main difference is over the future of President Bashar Al Assad. The Syrian opposition, America and many Arab countries have said any compromise should not include the continuation of Assad in power whereas the Syrian government has maintained that discussion on Assad’s fate is a redline.
The Aleppo operation can change the direction of the Syrian civil war. If the army succeeds in retaking the city, it will further strengthen Assad and his regime and can kill the peace process, thus ultimately paving the way for the continuation of Assad. If the rebels are able to withstand the army onslaught, there is a hope that they can build on those gains or at least maintain the status quo.
