GAZA CITY --Barely four months after a bloody conflict battered Gaza, experts warn that a new war could be in the offing if reconstruction is not accelerated and Palestinian divisions remain.
Since the end of the deadly 50-day war between Israel and Hamas, which killed nearly 2,200 Palestinians and 73 in Israel, little has changed on the ground in Gaza.
Swathes of the territory lie in ruins and tens of thousands of people remain homeless.
With reconstruction still conspicuous by its absence and talks to bolster the August truce repeatedly postponed, frustration is growing in Gaza -- and with it the danger of a new outbreak of violence.
This weekend, for the first time since the war ended on August 26, Israeli warplanes struck southern Gaza after militants fired a rocket over the border, the third time this has happened in four months.
Although nobody was hurt on either side, the exchange of fire raised concerns that the fragile truce could deteriorate rapidly.
Last week, as Hamas militants paraded through Gaza with rocket launchers and missiles in a show of force to mark the 27th anniversary of the Islamist group's founding, they were quick to warn that the situation was unsustainable.
"If there is no reconstruction of what Israel destroyed, we warn you that there will be an explosion," warned the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas's military wing.
"If our demands are ignored, there will be consequences for the enemy, its people and its leaders."
- Slipping towards war -
The glacial pace of reconstruction is the most immediate concern for Gaza, where UN figures show more than 96,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in the war, leaving 100,000 people homeless.
Over the past eight years, Gaza has been subjected to an Israeli blockade which has effectively barred the entry of most construction materials on grounds that militants could use them for other purposes.
After the war, the UN brokered a mechanism which would allow such goods in while ensuring they do not fall into the wrong hands.
Palestinian officials say Israel has effectively blocked reconstruction by limiting supplies entering Gaza, but diplomatic sources say the UN-brokered mechanism has taken longer than expected to get up and running.
The process has also been slowed by infighting between Hamas and Fatah, its West Bank-based rival which dominates the Palestinian Authority and has been tasked with managing reconstruction.
"The circumstances are as they were before the war," Israeli commentator Avi Issacharoff said.
"If the blockade continues, the borders remain closed and building is slow in the next six months, Hamas will move towards escalation, and depending on Israel's response, it could turn into a new war."
Gaza-based analyst Walid al-Mudallal agreed that Hamas was under increasing pressure.
"If it remains frozen in terms of reconstruction, war will be the only option. Hamas will have no choice," he said
AFP
