Russia calls off Idlib attack, agrees with Turkey on buffer zone

Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed a plea from his Turkish counterpart for a cease-fire in northwest Syria.

Now he’s effectively conceded the point -- preventing a major escalation in Syria’s seven-year war, at least for now.

Russia called off a campaign against the last major rebel-held area in Syria after Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached a deal on Monday. Syria’s Russian-backed army, which had deployed around Idlib province, won’t pursue the attack. Instead, there’ll be a demilitarized zone separating it from opposition groups dominated by jihadists.

As Syrian forces advanced, U.S. President Donald Trump warned of a "human tragedy’’ and his aides threatened military action. But it was Erdogan’s intervention that appears to have swayed Putin.

NATO Wedge

The Turkish president has sent troops to Idlib, supports rebels there and is a fierce opponent of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. That aligned him with the U.S. earlier in the war. But after Russian intervention in 2015 turned the tide in Assad’s favor, Erdogan began to change course. In the past year he’s worked closely with Putin and Iran, Assad’s other main backer, on plans to end the war -- while relations with the U.S. deteriorated.

"For Russia, the strategic relationship with Turkey is more important than indulging Assad,’’ said Heiko Wimmen, director of the Syria, Iraq and Lebanon Project at the International Crisis Group.

"Driving a wedge into NATO and pulling Turkey over to their side is a huge success,’’ Wimmen said. "They want to convert their successes in Syria into a sustainable political solution. They need Turkey for that.’’

Putin and Erdogan announced their accord after talks in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. Only limited details were made public. Putin said the buffer zone will extend for 15-20 kilometers (9-12 miles) between government and rebel forces by Oct. 15. It will be patrolled by Russian and Turkish units. All heavy weapons are supposed be removed by Oct. 10. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told reporters after the meeting that there won’t be a military assault on Idlib.

‘Will It Hold?’

Putin said the approach has the "overall’’ support of Assad’s government. Erdogan, who’s expressed concern about a new wave of Syrian refugees fleeing to Turkey from Idlib, said the pact can prevent "a major humanitarian crisis.’’

There are plenty of unanswered questions. The opposition fighters in Idlib include some 10,000 jihadists with links to al-Qaeda, as well as a larger number of rebels said to be more moderate -- some of them Turkish allies.

Erdogan said Turkey will keep radical groups out of the demilitarized area. He said non-jihadist rebels opposing Assad can stay where they are.

"The thing to watch is, will this agreement hold?’’ said Dennis Ross, who was America’s chief Mideast peace negotiator and advised several presidents. Based on past truces, there’s a risk that "the Syrians and the Iranians turn on the forces that Turkey’s supporting’’ once radical jihadists are dealt with, Ross said.

‘Upper Hand’

Monday’s was the second Erdogan-Putin meeting in less than two weeks. In Tehran on Sept. 7, Russia and Iran rejected the Turkish leader’s call for an immediate Idlib cease-fire. Airstrikes against rebels continued, though Syrian troops held back from a full-scale offensive.

A compromise between Putin and Erdogan was inevitable because "neither of them can claim the upper hand,” said Elena Suponina, a Middle East expert in Moscow. "Both sides have powerful cards to play.’’

The U.S. likely hasn’t given up on its longtime ally. With Turkish and American interests aligned in Idlib, there’s potential for deeper discussions, Ross said.

But Erdogan and the U.S. remain divided on a raft of issues -- including Syria.

America’s main allies there are autonomy-seeking Kurds linked to a group that’s been fighting Turkey for decades. They control about a quarter of Syria. Both Putin and Erdogan have called on the U.S. to pull its troops out.

Turkey also enraged Trump by detaining an American pastor, prompting the U.S. president to impose sanctions. Further penalties are threatened if Erdogan goes ahead with his plan to buy new missile-defense systems -- from Russia.

--With assistance from Selcan Hacaoglu and Olga Tanas.