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Iran-West deal and the markets

December 12, 2013 - 4:50:57 am

International markets have cheered the agreement reached recently between Iran and US-led powers. Markets reacted positively to the deal, and oil prices fell simply because the embargo on Iranian oil exports was expected to be lifted. International markets welcomed the deal to get access to the Iranian market when the economy improves and a new phase of development starts, when companies will benefit from Iranian projects. 

America and Western companies badly need these projects. The deal is expected to pave the way for Western companies to return to the Iranian market. There is no other justification to undermine the allies of the West in the region, including Israel and the Arab countries. 

Israel does not have projects that can benefit Western economies and make them grow. While Western companies are already operating in Arab countries, they are looking for other markets that can rescue Western economies? 

The Iranian market is huge and need years to recover, and American and Western companies may get the lion’s share of it. 

Unemployment has reached an unprecedented level of 27 percent of the workforce in Western countries, which is similar to the situation in countries cut off from development in Africa and others facing civil wars.

 A widening budget deficit makes the chances of revival of Western economies slim, and the Iranian economy, which has suffered neglect for years because of priority being given to militarization, offers the hope of rescue to Western economies at present. 

Since the Iranian economy has suffered from economic sanctions for years, the deal is expected to provide the necessary solutions to both sides. 

This is the crux of the deal, not Iran’s nuclear programme, which used to be at the centre of American and Western fuss for years. America is concerned about the nuclear programme only as far as its allies in the region — Israel and the Arabs — are concerned. These allies are not satisfied with the agreement and they have opposed it. America’s allies were kept totally in the dark about the agreement, except for what America wanted them to know.

This means the interests of the allies were not the motivation behind this deal as Iranian nuclear activities do not pose a threat to America as much as they do to the countries of the region.

It is in the best interests of flagging Western economies that are badly in need of liquidity that can revive them before they breathe their last. This can be better understood when we look at Western economies in the context of the damage caused by sanctions to both sides for decades. This means the deal is necessary for their survival. 

This agreement may lead to scrapping of the US missile defence shield, which  threatens Russia, as the US has used the Iran nuclear programme to justify building this shield. The West will save billions of dollars by cancelling this programme, and it may help America improve its relations with Russia, and give it a free hand to counter China, which Is considered an emerging threat to America’s interests. 

The US might have realised that a collapse of the Iranian regime would be catastrophic for the region at present. Therefore, the $8bn that was spent quickly relieved the Iranian regime and made its strong again. America will use Iran to force its allies in the region -- Israel and the Arab countries -- to listen to it. The deal may leave only one, common enemy for the countries of the region, with the hope that they unite and form one front, or at least establish strong links and coordination between them, which have failed to form in the past because of Israeli aggressions. 

Tel Aviv does not listen to the Americans and is continuing to build its settlements, which is impeding the peace process. At the time the Arab countries do not want to allow a transition to democracy, or to respect human rights, regardless of whether the time is ripe for all this. 

The deal puts the countries of the region face to face with their responsibilities. Concepts like Gulf unity and Arab unity cannot be more suitable for the Arabs, who need to create common institutions to pave the way to unity. 

The Arab countries need a unified economy, a unified currency, a unified central bank, unified foreign policy and a unified army, which, in the end, would mean the creation of a united Arab state in the Arabian Peninsula, which will force the world to respect them. 

The idea of each country working on its own has become outdated. No Arab regime can survive long after the Arab Spring and the Iranian-Western nuclear deal. 

Now it is time for work. We will see the Arab regimes that used to depend on Western countries to protect their interests coming back to the Arab homeland, to their citizens and to each other. They will realise that their interests and the interests of their people are identical.

 

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