Dr Mohammed
Iran’s concessions about its nuclear programme, although temporary, will most probably encourage it more to intervene in the internal affairs of countries in the region. Tehran’s arms are impatiently waiting for their share of the billion dollar that will be released.
After 18 days of continuous negotiations and four extensions, finally it has been officially announced on July 14, that a deal between Iran and the P5+1 has been reached concerning Iran’s nuclear programme.
The agreement requires about six months to be implemented on the ground. It states that re-sanctions will be applied 65 days after Iran’s incompliance. Any negotiations’ member is entitled to request re-sanctions if Tehran violates the terms of the agreement.
There will be a separate agreement concerning Iran’s Parchin nuclear facilities. This means that Iran has become more lenient and backed away from some of the red lines of disallowing inspections of its military sites.
Iran has also permitted the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) the right to interview anyone, when and in whatever way it wants and will inspect all Iranian nuclear sites, not by surprise, but with mutual agreement.
The inspection will take place within 14 days after submission of application. Comparing this with previous statements between the Iranian and western sides, means “meeting halfway”.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif described the agreement as “being less than perfect, but it opens a new page in relations”. The same is repeated in President Rohani’s speech, which is absolutely true, since we are witnessing a historic shift in international relations, especially between Tehran and the world.
With regard to the Iranian street, it will be celebrating in the coming months for reaching an agreement, not over Iran’s nuclear rights and programme details promoted by the regime, but rather the hope of improving their standard of living by getting a job, lowering rates of inflation and increasing wages.
On the Iranian political scene, the ideological and political conflict will soon begin after a lull in the storm. There will be a lot of criticism inside Iran concerning this agreement.
There are some internal forces that are more powerful than the current Iranian government and have much to lose; therefore, they see this openness to the West is posing a real threat to the image of the regime, its basic elements, revolutionary foundations, and perhaps its continuity.
The Revolutionary Guards would be affected the most by the loss of their highly important financial resources from oil and cargo smuggling to and from Iran.
On the American side, all attention is drawn to the Congress’s position from this agreement and whether it would support or say a word in this regard, especially since the Republican Party does not support the way the Obama’s administration is handling the Iranian situation and sees this as an unjustified US rush towards Iran.
President Obama has been outspoken in his speech after the announcement of the agreement that he would veto any attempts by Congress to reject it, whereas his foreign minister is optimistic about Congress in having a positive attitude.
The most important conclusion, in my view, are not the terms of the agreement that have been published over the Internet and that in fact confirm the freeze of the Iranian nuclear programme one way or another, but what has not been published and will probably never be published, which are the agreement’s details that will only surface and become a reality in the future.
The deal could be a real chance for a better future in the region, especially if it is about a peaceful nuclear programme and a shift of the Iranian regime from its revolutionary behaviour to a normal state pattern.
However, the indicators lead to the fact that Iran’s concessions about its nuclear programme, although temporary, will most probably encourage it more to intervene in the internal affairs of countries in the region and it will increase its financial support to the Syrian regime, Hezbollah and others.
All Iranian arms in the region are impatiently waiting for their share of the billion dollar that will be released.
The writer is a columnist and a specialist in Iranian affairs
