Mohammed R. Al-SulaitI & Karen Makuch
There is not much to say about COVID-19, as the media has already covered much more than needed. China’s first COVID-19 case has been traced back to November 2019 in the city of Wuhan.
Everything was fairly fine until the General Chief of the World Health Organization (WHO) Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus characterized the emerging virus as a pandemic (March 11, WHO).
Immediately, after his declaration, the outlook has changed, making most of the world countries declare an emergency. The international community has been demanding such urgent global action on climate change since at least prior to the promulgation of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate (UNFCCC), but we never saw such a call-to-arms on this unprecedented scale that we are seeing with COVID-19. And this is where there is arguably friction.
Climate Change is a cross-cutting environmental issue that is relevant for several reasons. It is reasonable to find a relationship between COVID-19 and other issues, particularly those related to the environment and air quality. COVID-19 is an infectious disease that attacks both immune and respiratory systems and its severity is acute for those who suffer from chronic diseases such as asthma.
Qatar’s first infected case of COVID-19 was confirmed on February 29 (QNA), and then the number of cases gradually increased until it has reached 481 cases at the time of writing. At that time, Qatar had taken several proactive measures and examined a number of suspected cases. However, on March 11, 238 cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in one day and infections were confirmed in foreign workers in one residential complex leading the country to declare an emergency. This declaration was followed by a package of decisions including the suspension of studies in schools and universities, closure of Hamad International Airport, suspension of flights from March 18, the suspension of public transport within the country and remote working for the most vulnerable category. In addition, the government announced an allocation of 75bn QR as part of a package of financial incentives to help the private sector overcome the crisis arising from the spread of COVID-19.
In addition, HE Ms Lolwah Bint Rashid Al-Khater, Official Spokesperson of the Supreme Committee for Crisis Management, pointed out in the press conference that in the light of the package of decision issued by H H Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani that the decision to work remotely includes pregnant women, the elderly and “People with asthma have priority to benefit from this decision” as these patients fall under the vulnerable category, urging that asthma falls within the framework of chronic respiratory diseases – the most vulnerable to the consequences of COVID-19. However, studies and evidence suggest that most cases of asthma in Qatar are originally caused by air pollution.
A medical study conducted in Qatar showed that there is a correlation between increasing air pollutant levels and patients admitted for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. In another study done by the same team to determine the impact of asthma and air pollution on school attendance of primary school children 6 to 12 years of age in Qatar, the results suggest air pollution has an impact on asthma, which results in significant school absenteeism (Bener et al., 2007; Bener et al., 2009). The study findings concluded critical air pollutants in the urban areas of Qatar were Carbon Monoxide and Nitrogen Oxide. We can conclude here air pollution does not cause COVID-19, but it is a contributing factor that previously led to increase pathological cases associated with the respiratory system that have now worsened with the emergence of COVID-19, by making these cases in particular more vulnerable to the infection.
The impact and disruption of this infectious disease puts pressure on the infrastructure of the health sector. As a preventive measure, all returnees from abroad are subject to quarantine in hotels, and no one knows whether these hotels can accommodate more or not, or about the high cost associated with providing health care. There may be a negative impact on the 2020 allocated budget (22.8bn QR) for the health sector. In fact, this virus reveals the flexibility of the industrial economic system and the readiness of governments to deal with such crises. Although Qatar has substantial financial reserves which allows the government to keep money flowing to the people and to their citizen in particular, the Middle East Institute have speculated the Qatari economy may see strong deflation and a sharp drop in GDP.
In an interesting conversation with an important Qatari resilience expert on the impact of COVID-19 on the Qatari economy, he began his dialogue by saying: “that a biological infectious disease can easily erase our economy”. In the momentum of urbanization, construction and development projects, and in these difficult circumstances, if the countries whose citizens work in Qatar recall them back, things will be more difficult and the economy dependent on continuous growth will enter into the paralysis stage. He continues: “Means of production today are fundamentally different from what they used to be in the pre-industrial age when economies relied predominately on the craftsmanship economy to produce most of its needs. Such a system was built on a series of supply chains that were mainly domestic, and based on a diverse set of small providers or suppliers each capable of continuing work, and supplying the goods without the risk of spreading disease to others in the work place as no concentration of people was required like we see today in factories all around the world”.
Certainly, this setback and unexpected crisis will have an impact on the Qatari economy. I am not here to speak negatively, but realistically, where statistics issued by the Qatar Planning and Statistics Authority indicate that China is one of the top five countries for exports and imports; second and first, respectively. Petroleum Gaseous and Other Gaseous Hydrocarbons are the most important category in the exported commodities, while motor vehicles fall under the most important commodities imported from abroad. China is a great power in the global economy, as it is the largest consumer of most raw materials, and the turmoil in its purchases has caused a clear change in global indicators and supply chains, especially this eventually leads to an economic slowdown.
Qatar is one of the largest suppliers of LNG in China, along with Australia and Malaysia. Bloomberg recently published that the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has issued a force majeure over natural gas imports in a sign that global commodity flows may face sharp impact from COVID-19 consequences. The company has taken several measures including: rescheduling shipments and plans to cancel deliveries contracted as LNG. According to Bloomberg, the company said on its website: "Natural gas demand has dropped sharply". Thus, it can be seen that the slowdown in Chinese demand has exacerbated the global LNG abundance, which led to global LNG prices collapsed to an all-time low in Asia in January.
Perhaps what was mentioned previously captures important economic scene. Hydrocarbon resources are not the problem, but the problem lies in its over-dependence and mismanagement that led to vulnerability and fragility of the current economic model. The best thing Doha can do is the transition to both slow and Low-Carbon growth. While this crisis has risen many questions and concerns: What can be avoided in the future? Does this crisis call us to rethink the current economic model? What are the alternatives? Should remote work be strengthened? But what if an electronic virus invades us next time? Let us re-visit our statement above about countries being catalysed into drastic measures to contain the pandemic. COVID-19 has shown us that the wold can come together in a time of crisis, that there can be drastic GHG emissions cuts when needed; that we can curtail our use of resources; that we can restore Nature back to health by not exploiting her. We have shown that communities can ‘act locally, think globally’ as mandated by the UN’s 1992 Agenda 21 and reduce their environmental impact overnight by shopping locally, reducing over-consumption, caring more about their valued outdoor spaces and the clean, health-giving air that they provide. Yes, there will be severe economic impacts but now the world will hopefully have a second chance to re-build itself once the pandemic is over, but with greener and cleaner, more equitable and ethical means. Let’s just hope that we can realise this vision.
*The author is a doctoral researcher at Centre for Environmental Policy of Imperial College London.
Karen Makuch, is a Senior Lecturer in Environmental Law in Imperial College London
