Dr. Shaher Zakaria
President Trump wrapped up his three-country tour of the Middle East of four days, during which substantial moves were made to transform the United States’ relationship with the region, as the “new” Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was being clearly formed in front of our eyes.
This new GCC will be led by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates for the imaginable future that will focus significantly on trade, tech, defense, and energy as it attempts to diversify its sources of income and slowly move away from oil and gas. Trump was greeted with spectacular fanfare in all three countries. The optics of Trump’s visit were strong, showcasing the larger-than-life opulence of the region’s richest countries as they deepen their ties with the US and advance their own economic agendas.
The White House announced historic numbers. Qatar and the U.S. agreed on a $1.2 trillion economic exchange of trade and defense, Saudi Arabia promised to invest $600 billion with a chance to increase that number to a $1 trillion, and the UAE committed to a 10-year $1.4 trillion investment framework in the US, with the center piece of these agreements being plans for the world’s largest artificial intelligence (AI) campus outside the United States, located in Abu Dhabi.
Some skeptics remain doubtful as to whether those numbers are realistic, especially during a period of low oil prices and weaker revenue for crude-producing countries. However, the message was clear: the Gulf States want to be first in line when it comes to partnering with the US, whether it be for business, military, or tech.
Trump symbolizes fast money, big defense, and access to American tech. If investing in these sectors will secure a seat at the table of the next world order, the Gulf nations, smartly, are doing just that to advance a long-term strategic alignment as well. Noticeably, Trump made sure to bring with him scores of top American CEOs including Tesla’s Elon Musk, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink, to name a few.
On the other hand, in Syria, there is much hope after Trump’s unexpected decision to lift sanctions on the country, as Syrians view the move as one that will reintegrate Syria into the global economy and bring much needed relief and investment into a country trying to recover from more than 50 years of dynastic family rule, as well as a nearly 14 year-long war. This also signifies a slight shift in US foreign policy initiatives when it comes to consulting with Israel in some Middle Eastern matters, choosing to ignore it this time.
The US lifted sanction on Syria without consulting with Israel, it appears to have made a ceasefire deal with the Houthis without consulting Israel, it is continuing ongoing talks with Iran over its nuclear weapons program with the help of Qatar, as Trump clearly mentioned during his visit to the country, and secured the release of its last American hostage from Hamas all while Israel is sidelined.
Furthermore, Trump’s visit to the region signifies the visible stark difference between Iran and the GCC economically. It clearly showed that countries who align themselves economically with the United States are better off than those who do not. More importantly, it undoubtedly showed the power of ‘geoeconomics’ which is a relatively new phenomenon written and spoken about in political science circles today even though the practice has been there for hundreds of years. Both Trump and the Gulf states energetically use hegemonic economic power to achieve geopolitical goals. Powerful countries have used economic tools as carrots and sticks to get others to do what they want.
The Romans, French, and British all did it during their respective rules. Today, the US and China are using geoeconomics on multiple fronts, including the US-led sanctions against Russia and China’s massive funding of power plants, airports, and other infrastructure projects around the world.
Geoeconomic power is the ability of governments to use their countries’ economic strength from existing financial and trade relationships to achieve geopolitical and economic goals. It also can have an overall positive effect as seen with the lifting of Syria’s economic sanctions. Hence, the United States’ tech, defense, and energy know-how along with the Gulf region’s wealth from a commodity that the world desires as well as their willingness to diversity their economies and benefit from the United States’ skills and knowledge, makes achieving geopolitical goals a win-win situation for both parties.
— The author is an Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Lusail University – Doha, Qatar.
Dr. Shaher Zakaria is an Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Lusail University – Doha, Qatar.
