Syrian peace talks are heading for collapse, or have already collapsed, depending on how grim a view we are prepared to take of the events unfolding in Geneva. The opposition has called a ‘pause’ to negotiations which is equivalent to a walkout. The UN-sponsored peace talks had never looked promising from the start because of unbridgeable differences between the government and the opposition over the fate of President Bashar Al Assad. The government says Assad’s presidency cannot be negotiated while the opposition says his removal is a prerequisite for any deal. Both sides are aware of the huge consequences of the collapse of the current peace effort, with one Western diplomat warning that talks may not resume for at least a year if they are abandoned now.
The first casualty of the stalemate in Geneva is the ceasefire which was brokered by the US and Russia to pave the way for the first peace talks attended by the warring parties. The opposition yesterday declared that the six-week-old ceasefire was over, clearing the way for a full resumption of fighting. The ceasefire was never implemented completely. There were cases of sporadic fighting from the start, which intensified gradually, but it has helped in the delivery of much-needed aid to victims and brought a respite from fighting to large numbers of people. Syrians will now be exposed to the full fury of the war; there will be another mass exodus of refugees and mass killings and Syria will continue to wallow in death and destruction.
The opposition will have to rethink its strategy if they are to achieve their objective of ousting Assad – like going for better coordination, leadership and war strategy, and an aggressive campaign abroad to leverage the support they are already enjoying. It will be a tough task. Most of the international community wants Assad to leave, but their support hasn’t translated into anything substantial whereas Russian and Iranian support has helped Assad regain lost territory and inflict huge damage on the opposition as well as the Islamic State militants. The US is busy with a presidential election and therefore is unlikely to be of any help other than verbal support. Many Arab countries too are preoccupied with their own internal crises. The opposition will need a credible and well-thought out strategy to overcome these adverse circumstances. Turkey and some Arab countries, including from the Gulf, continue to stand solidly behind the opposition and the opposition needs to win their trust too to broaden this support.
It’s also time for the West to intervene in Syria to help the opposition. A ray of hope has come from France which is planning to discuss with other European powers and US the idea of convening a meeting of major powers on Syria.
Syrian peace talks are heading for collapse, or have already collapsed, depending on how grim a view we are prepared to take of the events unfolding in Geneva. The opposition has called a ‘pause’ to negotiations which is equivalent to a walkout. The UN-sponsored peace talks had never looked promising from the start because of unbridgeable differences between the government and the opposition over the fate of President Bashar Al Assad. The government says Assad’s presidency cannot be negotiated while the opposition says his removal is a prerequisite for any deal. Both sides are aware of the huge consequences of the collapse of the current peace effort, with one Western diplomat warning that talks may not resume for at least a year if they are abandoned now.
The first casualty of the stalemate in Geneva is the ceasefire which was brokered by the US and Russia to pave the way for the first peace talks attended by the warring parties. The opposition yesterday declared that the six-week-old ceasefire was over, clearing the way for a full resumption of fighting. The ceasefire was never implemented completely. There were cases of sporadic fighting from the start, which intensified gradually, but it has helped in the delivery of much-needed aid to victims and brought a respite from fighting to large numbers of people. Syrians will now be exposed to the full fury of the war; there will be another mass exodus of refugees and mass killings and Syria will continue to wallow in death and destruction.
The opposition will have to rethink its strategy if they are to achieve their objective of ousting Assad – like going for better coordination, leadership and war strategy, and an aggressive campaign abroad to leverage the support they are already enjoying. It will be a tough task. Most of the international community wants Assad to leave, but their support hasn’t translated into anything substantial whereas Russian and Iranian support has helped Assad regain lost territory and inflict huge damage on the opposition as well as the Islamic State militants. The US is busy with a presidential election and therefore is unlikely to be of any help other than verbal support. Many Arab countries too are preoccupied with their own internal crises. The opposition will need a credible and well-thought out strategy to overcome these adverse circumstances. Turkey and some Arab countries, including from the Gulf, continue to stand solidly behind the opposition and the opposition needs to win their trust too to broaden this support.
It’s also time for the West to intervene in Syria to help the opposition. A ray of hope has come from France which is planning to discuss with other European powers and US the idea of convening a meeting of major powers on Syria.
