Solar panels installed on the tiled rooftops of buildings in San Francisco bay area, Silicon Valley in California, US.
DOHA: As the world races to meet ambitious climate targets, a new and powerful headwind has emerged—not technological limitations or lack of investment, but a surge in global trade protectionism. In a time when international cooperation is essential for scaling up renewable energy, governments are increasingly erecting barriers that threaten to unravel clean energy supply chains. According to the Al-Attiyah Foundation’s latest Sustainability Research Paper, trade policy uncertainty has become one of the most critical—and overlooked—threats to the global energy transition.
Titled “Tariffs, Trade, and Transition: The Impact of Trade Barriers on Sustainable Energy Goals”, the report examines how recent trade actions, such as the United States imposing tariffs exceeding 250% on solar panels and up to 100% on battery components, are disrupting the international flow of clean energy technologies. With solar photovoltaic supply chains alone spanning over 50 countries, even a single policy shift can delay or derail projects on a global scale.
The paper highlights that these trade restrictions could delay global renewable energy targets by 3–5 years, while non-tariff barriers—such as local content mandates, certification rules, and technical standards—are adding 15–25% in compliance costs to clean energy projects. These disruptions have real economic impacts: in the first quarter of 2025 alone, nearly $8bn in clean energy investments were cancelled, including major battery and solar manufacturing projects in the United States.
Supply chain concentration adds another layer of vulnerability. China currently dominates global manufacturing in key clean technologies and components, including solar modules, battery cells, and rare earth minerals. This has left the US, EU, and others exposed to policy shocks, such as China’s recent export restrictions on graphite and lithium.
However, the paper also identifies strategic opportunities. Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries—including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, and Egypt—possess substantial reserves of critical minerals like lithium, phosphate, and copper, which are essential to clean energy supply chains. Combined with their geographic location bridging Europe, Asia, and Africa, these nations are well-positioned to develop into regional clean energy trade and production hubs.
The Foundation’s analysis calls for urgent international policy coordination to prevent further fragmentation. Scenario modelling shows that eliminating half of current trade barriers could increase global solar PV deployment by 7% and reduce cumulative emissions by up to 12 gigatons of CO2 by 2060.
As one of twelve research papers produced annually by the Al-Attiyah Foundation, this report reinforces the need for evidence-based decision-making in the face of rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic conditions. Without coordinated trade frameworks, the world risks stalling its progress on climate goals just as momentum is building.
